Every year around this time I write some predictions down. Last year I didn’t bother to put them in my blog, but you can read them here and here (search for “riskable” on the page—for some reason the comments lost all their formatting, sorry about the lack of paragraphs).

I was wrong about a great many things in 2005, but I was right about a lot more. In this entry I’ll detail where I went right and wrong in 2005 as well as detail my predictions for 2006!

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Where I was wrong:

Wi-Max never caught on (still vaporware)
Honda’s Hybrid Accord sold like hotcakes (wasn’t expecting Katrina =)
Apple’s new iPods did not have cameras or Bluetooth
No terabyte hard drive (yet!), but we did hit 500GB.
The Cable companies won their lawsuit and thus, do not have to share their lines (*cry*)
No TV I’ve seen yet in 2005 includes an Internet weather/traffic function (though, you can add it with MythTV!)
Lawsuits against/by Splenda seem to never end
Still no cell phones for purchase with liquid lenses (that I know of)
Miniature LED-based projectors never made it into cell phones and cameras

Were I was right:

Clearwire expanded their subscriber base considerably
The Prius still has an insane waiting list
Bluetooth 2.0 is still vaporware
Sales of Personal Video Players/Recorders (iPod video, Archos AV series, etc) really did take off
There were several lawsuits brought against vendors for non-compliance with the GPL (Fortinet was forced to release their code, Sony’s rootkit lawsuit is pending, and there’s more)
TVs that come with embedded Linux shipped (Samsung, Philips, Panasonic, etc. Just about any TV with a built-in PVR function)
Many HDTVs now ship with CableCard support
Splenda is selling like crazy
The Red Sox didn’t win the World Series
A few Linux phones were actually sold by U.S. wireless carriers
A few 2.0 Megapixel phones were released that actually have printable output
Flash-based camcorders actually did sell well
Ultralight laptops (as opposed to heavy desktop replacements with 17 nich+ displays) actually were cheaper in 2005
OpenOffice 2.0 was released and really is encroaching on Microsoft’s marketshare (just have a look at Massachusetts open standards requirement!)
Solaris 10 never took off. It isn’t even generating any buzz.
Sun’s Java Desktop was stagnant and Sun really did waste time on Solaris 10 (with OpenSolaris).
Ringback tones/songs never took off (duh, $10/month just so callers can hear a Britney Spears song instead of “ring ring” isn’t worth it)
Touchpads finally did start incorporating keyboards and trackpads—making them laptops with touch screens
LED lighting did take off. LED Christmas lights, LED flashlights, LED flood lamps, etc
Linux did take off as the skill of choice in job listings! Or more specifically, open source skills are some of the most sought-after right now in the tech job market. One quick glance at techies.com by a Microsoft guy sure must be a slap in the face to download a Linux ISO.

Areas where I was neutral

Novell/SuSE didn’t take off, but it didn’t fizzle either. It had excellent growth, but the company laid off thousands of workers.
Cingular launched UMTS in come cities, but it is too soon to tell whether or not people are using it for streaming Internet radio.
The Smart car launch was delayed because the U.S. bureaucracy is too damn slow. I still expect it to be a hit in 2006 when it finally makes these shores.

Predictions for 2006

I’ve decided to break out my predictions by category…

Technology

• RSS feeds will really take off. Up until now RSS feeds have been relegated to quickly navigating news and podcasts here and there. In 2006, RSS will break out into appliances, car gadgets, online TV shows, and will lead to more automation of how people get information.
• Downloadable TV shows will become more available, but copy restrictions will slow adoption. At least one Internet-only video show that has no restrictions whatsoever will begin to encroach on regular TV viewership.
• International Internet “TV shows” will make American companies start to lobby Congress to tax them and/or make them illegal.
• People will finally start to listen to Internet radio in their cars thanks to high speed wireless networks.
• People will finally realize that Vonage isn’t the only Voice-over-IP provider and will start subscribing to cheaper, smaller providers.
• Consumer Asteriskbased appliances will start showing up in stores like Best Buy and CompUSA. People will be able to use them with any service provider they choose or even with multiple service providers. This will result in Free World Dialup numbers having more significance.
• AJAX will continue to be hyped, but useful applications will be few and far between. Essentially, it still won’t be a “killer app”.
• Solar technology will improve to the point where Americans start to take notice. We might even start seeing regular news stories about it. Recent advances in nanotechnology will lead the charge (pun intended =)
• Both Sirius and XM will announce excellent growth as a result of purchases during 2005’s holiday season
• UPnP will be included in zillions of consumer devices (phones, wifi cameras, music/video players, TVs, etc) but hardly anyone will use it
• Some company will sell a “blogpad”-a device similar to those email appliances that flopped a few years ago. Blogpads will also flop.
• The Xbox 360 will be hacked and pirated games will start showing up on the net. Someone will get Linux to boot on it and Steve Ballmer will throw a whole couch.
• KDE 4 will debut with the revolutionary announcement that it now runs on Windows (replacing Explorer). This will vastly increase the usage of KOffice and Kontact.
• Windows Vista will debut and none of the DRM features will work properly—causing consumer backlash and more Mac/Linux converts.
• Windows Vista’s new licensing scheme and lack of enterprise features will make companies wonder why they bother with Windows anymore… Resulting in major desktop Linux rollouts. Magazines like “CFO” will have cover stories on “How you can migrate your business to Linux”.
• Apple’s Intel-powered Macs will be a big hit because they can run Mac OS X, Windows, and Linux… Making them the ultimate compatibility PC.
• MIT’s $100 laptop will sell more units in the U.S. than are bought/given away to 3rd world countries due to their open nature and hackability.
• Microsoft’s anti-virus software will flop as a result of unreliable/too slow updates.
• Security will be the buzz word of the year as lots of new laws go into effect. We’ll hear “Sarbanes-Oxley” a lot.
• The RIAA will lose a file sharing lawsuit. This will end up setting a precedent against them but it will not stop them from annoucing thousands of more lawsuit filings.

Politics

• President Bush will be impeached as a result of his domestic spy operation.
• Alito will be confirmed to the Supreme Court.
• FEMA will screw up yet another hurricane disaster relief effort.
• The Democrats will win control of the Senate
• Jose Padilla will be transferred into civilian custody and brought to trial where he will be acquitted based on the fact that he was illegally detained.
• The Patriot Act will fail to be renewed, but lawmakers will try to slip Patriot Act-like provisions into other bills as riders.
• The national deficit will be a major news story as the bills start to pile up from Iraq, Afghanistan, and the gold market continues to take off. The value of the U.S. dollar will fall considerably and “hyperinflation” will be the big buzz word.
• Congress will start the initial plans to seriously cut government spending.

Medicine/Science

• The earth will continue to warm and the U.S. will actually start taking steps to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
• The cost of oil will rise steadily throughout the year—faster than the historic norm—as a result of increasing oil consumption in China and India. Pundits will make comments like, “we cannot survive another Katrina oil crisis”
• The U.S. will pass legislation allowing the construction of new fast breeder nuclear reactors and the media will buzz about sodium fires.
• Advancements in stem cell research will cause related stocks to rise at phenomenal levels.
• Some disease will be cured for the first time as a result of a stem cell transplant.
• The “day after” pill will finally make it onto store shelves (over the counter).
• ESA will replace NASA as the agency of choice for cool space-related research and advancements.
• Mount Augustine will erupt.
• Advancements in prosthetics will finally bring a usable mechanical hand. This same research will lead to advancements in brain-computer interfaces.
• Vast amounts of melting ice will uncover at least one lost civilization and new fossil discoveries.
• Lake Mead (Hoover Dam) will recede to the point where Southern California, Arizona, and Nevada start to look at new ways to meet their growing energy needs as a result of increasing temperatures and a rising population of retirees (maybe they’ll be the first states with fast breeder nuclear?).
• Bird flu will not become the pandemic that people fear. It will be replaced with a new buzz-friendly disease… Probably malaria (pun intended).
• An HIV vaccine will show promise in early trials and the world will speculate/complain on how much it will cost.
• Saudi Arabia will admit that the Gawar oil field has peaked. This will cause oil prices to spike, then fall again as people realize it will be a long time before the Saudis are completely out of oil.
• China will announce numerous advancements in their space program.

That’s it for now. I’ll probably add more before midnight, New Year’s Eve (yes, midnight—because we have an extra second this year!).